Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3F 0x3f48…4dd7 crypto 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,007 (+8%) realized +$1,008 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%48W / 26L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$977
other 8% +$23
sports 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.2%
≤30d 3 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 0% -4.4%
≤90d 8 +2.5% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.5%
all 74 +13.9% +3.0% 65% 47% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 47% -2.4%
10% -6.8% 47% -11.7%
15% -15.8% 47% -20.3%
20% -24.1% 47% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$34 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$1,008
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses48 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage240d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 98¢ $217 $216 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $75 +$5 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5AM ET May 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? Apr 14 $376 +$18 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 8? Apr 09 $193 +$1 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? Apr 08 $190 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 27? Mar 27 $191 +$1 +0%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $191 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 15 $8,443 −$8 -0%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 13 $40 +$39 +97%
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $150 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 5AM ET Feb 18 $93 +$93 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 08 $38 +$38 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 07 $26 +$26 +100%
Over $15M committed to the Fabric public sale? Feb 03 $142 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 01 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jan 10 $210 −$210 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 10 $105 +$105 +100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 09 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 09 $88 +$88 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Dec 30 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Dec 22 $26 +$26 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Dec 20 $17 +$17 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Dec 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Dec 09 $34 −$34 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Dec 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Dec 05 $42 −$42 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Dec 05 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 24-30? Dec 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Dec 03 $12 +$12 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 01 $8 +$8 +100%
Solana Up or Down - November 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Nov 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Nov 26 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Nov 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Nov 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Nov 23 $27 +$27 +100%
Solana Up or Down - November 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Nov 22 $447 +$447 +100%
XRP Up or Down - November 21, 12AM ET Nov 21 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Nov 21 $159 +$159 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Nov 20 $300 +$300 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Nov 19 $158 +$158 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Nov 18 $78 +$78 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Nov 16 $13 +$14 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Nov 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Nov 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Nov 15 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 13, 9PM ET Nov 14 $20 +$20 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 14 $9 +$9 +100%
XRP Up or Down - November 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Nov 13 $8 +$8 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $217 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $75 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 27d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? SELL No 97¢ $212 65d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 86¢ $12 66d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 86¢ $170 66d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? SELL No 95¢ $20 67d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? SELL No 95¢ $14 67d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? SELL No 95¢ $22 67d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? SELL No 95¢ $25 67d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? SELL No 95¢ $23 67d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? SELL No 95¢ $23 67d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? SELL No 95¢ $21 67d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? SELL No 95¢ $24 67d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? SELL No 95¢ $10 67d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 98¢ $195 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 8? BUY Up 99¢ $193 71d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? BUY No 99¢ $190 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 27? BUY Down 100¢ $191 83d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,402 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,404 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,404 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,405 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,405 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,406 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,406 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,408 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.26 · official $216.26 (match) · 172 history records