Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3F 0x3f48…e69b other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$1,426 (+6%) realized +$2,157 · open −$731
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 55L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$190
7 days+$1,882
14 days+$1,871
30 days+$3,077
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$1,886
other 24% −$730
tech 10% −$472
politics 8% +$63
crypto 5% +$119
economics 1% −$24
finance 0% −$11
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +53.2% +38.6% 100% 33% +26.9%
≤30d 33 +83.4% +65.9% 73% 61% +9.9%
≤90d 94 +22.9% +11.2% 41% 35% -3.5%
all 94 +22.9% +11.2% 41% 35% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 35% -3.5%
10% +0.6% 32% -12.8%
15% -9.1% 26% -21.2%
20% -18.0% 23% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -16% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$71 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1,532
Realized+$2,157
Unrealized−$731
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)94 / 102
History coverage62d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 48¢ 49¢ $975 $1,003 +$29 (+3%)
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? No 24¢ 38¢ $110 $169 +$59 (+53%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 28¢ $551 $139 −$412 (-75%)
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 30¢ 24¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? No 22¢ $429 $51 −$378 (-88%)
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? No 30¢ 32¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? No 29¢ 22¢ $49 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Will Marquita Bradshaw be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee? No 28¢ 36¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $1,813 +$190 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,746 +$59 +3%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 14 $1,121 +$1,633 +146%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary e Jun 06 $61 +$9 +14%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 01 $76 +$44 +58%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,205 +$119 +10%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 30 $71 +$27 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1,106 +$363 +33%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $860 +$704 +82%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 28 $1,067 +$679 +64%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? May 28 $885 −$212 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $1,027 +$314 +30%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? May 26 $668 +$268 +40%
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? May 26 $205 +$250 +122%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? May 25 $213 +$71 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $50 +$26 +51%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? May 25 $7 −$2 -25%
Will STRC market cap hit $16B by June 30? May 25 $46 −$3 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 25 $63 +$20 +31%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? May 25 $102 +$75 +73%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? May 25 $139 +$37 +27%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? May 25 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? May 25 $50 +$7 +13%
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? May 25 $46 +$26 +57%
Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? May 25 $51 +$5 +11%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 25 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic May 25 $333 −$239 -72%
Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? May 25 $480 −$448 -93%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer May 25 $81 −$3 -4%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi May 25 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $20 +$56 +279%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 24 $1,029 −$985 -96%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 17 $894 −$565 -63%
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 +$62 +308%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $100 +$300 +300%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 15 $674 −$658 -98%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 14 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elec May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? May 13 $50 −$46 -91%
Will Zoë Garbett win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral electi May 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 13 $10 +$9 +92%
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? May 05 $663 −$122 -18%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? May 04 $1,450 −$104 -7%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 04 $389 −$26 -7%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 02 $367 −$57 -16%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 02 $517 −$58 -11%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $849 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $97 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $975 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 22¢ $292 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 34¢ $236 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 32¢ $41 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 31¢ $384 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 28¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $725 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 26¢ $59 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $850 3d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 35¢ $280 3d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $619 4d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $451 4d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $167 4d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $613 4d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $624 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $170 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $920 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $235 7d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes $21 10d
Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary e SELL No 60¢ $31 11d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $238 16d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $68 16d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $64 16d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $62 16d
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $0 16d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $485 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No $215 16d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 24¢ $107 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,532.36 · official $1,532.37 (match) · 515 history records