Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3f46…7a71 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$165 (+30%) realized +$165 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$179
other 39% +$51
crypto 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +34.2% +21.4% 39% 39% +25.6%
≤30d 18 +34.2% +21.4% 39% 39% +25.6%
≤90d 18 +34.2% +21.4% 39% 39% +25.6%
all 18 +34.2% +21.4% 39% 39% +25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.4% 39% +25.6%
10% +9.8% 33% +13.6%
15% -0.8% 22% +2.6%
20% -10.5% 22% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$16 · ×3.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $121 +$38 +32%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $46 +$15 +32%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $45 −$44 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 −$9 -42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$38 -75%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$59 +287%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$100 +649%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $38 +$151 +400%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$14 -28%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $97 38m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $61 58m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 84¢ $63 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $60 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 75¢ $46 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 3h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $45 23h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $12 23h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $79 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? BUY No 11¢ $21 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $63 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $40 3d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 82¢ $39 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 82¢ $19 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records