Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3F 0x3f41…3769 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$576 (+12%) realized +$606 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$960
other 36% −$308
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +37.6% +24.5% 43% 40% +8.9%
≤30d 35 +37.6% +24.5% 43% 40% +8.9%
≤90d 35 +37.6% +24.5% 43% 40% +8.9%
all 35 +37.6% +24.5% 43% 40% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.5% 40% +8.9%
10% +12.6% 37% -1.5%
15% +1.7% 37% -11.0%
20% -8.3% 37% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$78 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$896
Realized+$606
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 45
History coverage5d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $229 $251 +$22 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $250 $234 −$16 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $160 $171 +$11 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $178 $143 −$35 (-19%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 40¢ 34¢ $90 $78 −$12 (-14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $143 +$26 +18%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- Jun 16 $15 +$92 +599%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 +$31 +124%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$2 -12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $304 −$171 -56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $127 −$127 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $215 −$215 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$49 +473%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$19 -61%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$42 +276%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$69 +226%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$227 +442%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $632 +$1,154 +183%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $254 −$254 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $153 +$213 +140%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $202 +$106 +53%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $242 −$242 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 −$12 -12%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $152 +$102 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 32¢ $71 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $102 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $81 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 8h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 8h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 14h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes $5 23h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $10 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $10 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $136 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $133 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 24¢ $118 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $15 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $304 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 26h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 36¢ $21 26h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $215 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $219 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $127 27h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY 44¢ $25 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND A BUY $10 27h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 14¢ $15 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $896.17 · official $901.36 (match) · 105 history records