Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f3e…493e crypto 521 markets active 4d ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%279W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$9
weather 21% −$7
sports 6% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -2.2% -11.5% 58% 49% -11.5%
≤30d 427 -2.5% -11.8% 62% 49% -12.0%
≤90d 521 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 42% -14.1%
all 521 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 42% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 42% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 18% -22.3%
15% -27.3% 9% -29.8%
20% -34.4% 4% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses279 / 242
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)521 / 521
History coverage45d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 521 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1186 history records