Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f3c…ba50 crypto 704 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$147 (-4%) realized −$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%395W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day38.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$85
14 days−$118
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$316
sports 1% −$11
finance 0% $0
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -21.0% -28.5% 47% 41% -21.5%
≤30d 442 -13.4% -21.7% 56% 44% -17.0%
≤90d 704 -14.8% -23.0% 56% 42% -17.9%
all 704 -14.8% -23.0% 56% 42% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 42% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 23% -25.8%
15% -37.1% 10% -32.9%
20% -43.2% 5% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses395 / 309
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)704 / 704
History coverage41d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day38.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 704 Trades
no open positions (107 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +128%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +296%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1680 history records