Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3F 0x3f3a…5f83 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$51 (+4%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%22W / 15L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$5
other 1% +$8
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +30.8% +18.3% 59% 38% -9.3%
≤30d 37 +30.8% +18.3% 59% 38% -9.3%
≤90d 37 +30.8% +18.3% 59% 38% -9.3%
all 37 +30.8% +18.3% 59% 38% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.3% 38% -9.3%
10% +7.0% 32% -18.0%
15% -3.3% 24% -25.9%
20% -12.8% 22% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$40 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage50d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 $0 +22%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $105 +$217 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $104 +$118 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$83 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$128 +484%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$26 +484%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 28 $5 $0 -2%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 28 $1 +$4 +388%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records