Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f36…99ae world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$1
other 21% $0
politics 6% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 9 -1.8% -11.1% 44% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 -1.8% -11.1% 44% 0% -9.5%
all 24 -0.0% -9.6% 62% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage453d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 55¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $51 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $49 +$3 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $10 −$2 -20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $50 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $4 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $20 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $21 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $11 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $15 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $40 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $0 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $9 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $14 29h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $4 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $50 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $49.87 (match) · 89 history records