Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3F 0x3f35…9ea4 crypto 1709 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,039 (-8%) realized +$164 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate66%1137W / 586L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day130.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$682
7 days−$736
14 days+$97
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$829
other 6% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 624 -15.0% -23.1% 69% 28% -24.5%
≤30d 1723 -2.1% -11.4% 66% 45% -8.5%
≤90d 1723 -2.1% -11.4% 66% 45% -8.5%
all 1723 -2.1% -11.4% 66% 45% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 45% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 35% -17.2%
15% -27.7% 28% -25.2%
20% -34.7% 21% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$510
Realized+$164
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1137 / 586
Open positions29
Markets (closed)1723 / 1709
History coverage17d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day130.7
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 1723 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 69¢ 96¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+39%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 88¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+23%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 94¢ $25 $38 +$13 (+51%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 86¢ 98¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+14%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 65¢ 73¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 80¢ 89¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? No 64¢ 88¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 73¢ 94¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 76¢ 47¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 73¢ 83¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027? No 84¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? No 72¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 64¢ 57¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $6 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $509.75 · official $509.75 (match) · 3500 history records