Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f34…4ff7 other 238 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 21% −$16
politics 10% −$2
culture 7% −$7
economics 5% −$2
crypto 5% −$4
world 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage127d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $442 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $119 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $414 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $378 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $260 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $338 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $559 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $290 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $313 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $358 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $353 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $299 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $439 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $467 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $135 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $255 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $294 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $67 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 29m
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 2h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 8h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 10h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $59 11h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 13h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 14h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 18h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 23h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 24h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 26h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 27h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 29h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 30h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 32h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 34h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $60 35h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $60 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $60 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 41h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.64 · official $58.64 (match) · 1296 history records