Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f33…7af9 crypto 166 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-1%) realized −$78 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%73W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$440
7 days+$166
14 days+$287
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$532
other 28% +$527
sports 12% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -12.6% -20.9% 42% 39% +0.5%
≤30d 86 -17.1% -25.0% 41% 38% -2.6%
≤90d 162 -11.4% -19.9% 45% 39% -11.0%
all 162 -11.4% -19.9% 45% 39% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 39% -11.0%
10% -27.5% 33% -19.5%
15% -34.5% 30% -27.3%
20% -41.0% 22% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$30 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses73 / 89
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)162 / 166
History coverage36d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+6%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Under 12¢ 14¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $71 −$11 -16%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06 Jun 27 $30 +$96 +321%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $81 +$8 +9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $328 +$221 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $203 +$126 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $117 −$116 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $30 −$29 -96%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $35 −$34 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$35 +113%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $35 +$14 +41%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$21 +70%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $51 +$44 +86%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $184 −$90 -49%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$20 +101%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$10 -72%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$6 +31%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$8 +38%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$17 +86%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$15 +76%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $198 +$142 +72%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $41 −$10 -25%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $212 +$128 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $135 +$77 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $107 +$49 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -62%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $35 −$32 -92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $315 +$154 +49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $149 −$105 -70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$59 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $21 10m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $61 16m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 47¢ $60 17m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $71 50m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 48¢ $38 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 67¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 2h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 A BUY 28¢ $30 3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06 BUY 23¢ $30 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $328 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $328 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $203 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $117 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $1 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 1¢ $1 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $65 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 SELL Under 87¢ $50 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $35 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $35 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $30 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $30 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $10 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $10 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $10 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 58¢ $30 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 37¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.64 · official $86.67 (match) · 564 history records