Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f32…b299 crypto 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (438 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,428 (-4%) realized −$4,502 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%109W / 73L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$598per market
Trades / day438.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$10,438
other 2% −$119
sports 0% +$234
world 0% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (438 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -22.8% -30.2% 60% 29% -28.3%
≤30d 182 -21.4% -28.9% 60% 30% -27.1%
≤90d 182 -21.4% -28.9% 60% 30% -27.1%
all 182 -21.4% -28.9% 60% 30% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover438.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.9% 30% -27.1%
10% -35.7% 14% -34.1%
15% ← realistic here -41.9% 7% -40.5%
20% -47.6% 4% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$710) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$469 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,414
Realized−$4,502
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses109 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions21
Markets (closed)182 / 172
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$598
Trades / day438.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $152 $180 +$28 (+19%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $136 $145 +$9 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $110 $130 +$20 (+18%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $113 $126 +$13 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $99 $105 +$6 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $125 $95 −$29 (-24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $97 $94 −$3 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $45 $76 +$32 (+71%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $45 $74 +$29 (+64%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $68 $59 −$8 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $33 $56 +$23 (+72%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $53 $53 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-17%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $43 $35 −$8 (-19%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $45 $23 −$23 (-50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $24 $16 −$8 (-35%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-15%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $760 −$760 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $946 −$946 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $495 −$495 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $164 −$301 -183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $575 −$575 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$34 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$79 -159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$498 -638%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1,095 −$1,095 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $530 −$530 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $640 −$640 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1,525 −$1,525 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $929 −$929 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $606 −$606 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1,597 −$1,415 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5,032 −$2,870 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1,768 −$1,631 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $4,077 +$3,098 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2,694 −$2,564 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $4,684 −$3,343 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3,445 −$694 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $835 +$101 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,230 +$658 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2,517 −$1,240 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2,688 +$865 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2,612 +$1,085 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2,411 +$77 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5,601 +$238 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1,260 −$1,204 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $649 +$107 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $222 +$31 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $807 +$108 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $726 +$100 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $99 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,414.16 · official $1,420.50 (match) · 3500 history records