Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f31…6953
other · 119 markets active 3h ago
1.5score
+$1,012 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,010 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$312
Realized+$1,010
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses22 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage118d
Avg bet$1,042
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$14
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $311 $312 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,731 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,997 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,846 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $860 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 03 $407 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,044 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,045 −$4 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 21 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,926 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,131 −$2 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 02 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $2,467 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $3,326 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $587 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $4,451 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $3,812 −$4 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,663 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $2,840 −$3 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $1,780 −$2 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $833 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $1,100 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $3,180 −$3 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $79 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 01 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $1,854 −$4 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $737 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1,869 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $66 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $679 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$1,171
politics 38% −$52
sports 17% −$108
tech 1% $0
culture 1% −$2
world 1% $0
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $751 2h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $751 4h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $714 5h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $716 9h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $784 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $786 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $806 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $808 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $596 8d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $597 8d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $796 8d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $798 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $554 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $555 8d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $858 9d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $860 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $378 12d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $379 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $427 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $428 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $446 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $447 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $469 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $470 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $433 16d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $434 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $311 16d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $407 19d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,043 20d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,044 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -11.4% -19.9% 12% 5% -10.3%
all 118 -3.5% -12.7% 19% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 11% -8.8%
10% -21.0% 11% -17.5%
15% -28.7% 10% -25.5%
20% -35.7% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.22 · official $312.22 (match) · 398 history records