Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3f2e…05a6 other 117 markets active 3h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,359 (+15%) realized +$3,524 · open −$165
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%42W / 27L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$12,222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$99
14 days+$2,913
30 days+$3,039
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$2,910
sports 7% −$126
world 2% −$6
politics 1% −$24
crypto 1% −$43
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.9% +15.7% 73% 73% +6.9%
≤30d 52 +38.7% +25.5% 60% 58% +47.3%
≤90d 69 +32.8% +20.2% 61% 58% +27.7%
all 69 +32.8% +20.2% 61% 58% +27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.2% 58% +27.7%
10% ← realistic here +8.7% 54% +15.5%
15% -1.8% 46% +4.3%
20% -11.5% 38% -5.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
24.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$70 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$12,222
Realized+$3,524
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses42 / 27
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions48
Markets (closed)69 / 117
History coverage127d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2,619 $2,812 +$192 (+7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,044 $1,796 −$248 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,505 $1,567 +$62 (+4%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $1,018 $1,015 −$2 (-0%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 72¢ $707 $682 −$25 (-4%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 50¢ $717 $610 −$107 (-15%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $427 $528 +$101 (+24%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 64¢ $377 $368 −$9 (-2%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $354 $320 −$34 (-9%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $290 $293 +$3 (+1%)
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $234 $245 +$12 (+5%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $206 $199 −$7 (-3%)
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $171 $174 +$3 (+2%)
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $233 $171 −$61 (-26%)
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $167 $170 +$3 (+2%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $175 $167 −$8 (-5%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 74¢ $130 $149 +$19 (+15%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $135 $127 −$8 (-6%)
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Sinner 63¢ 46¢ $159 $116 −$42 (-27%)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $76 $88 +$12 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 44¢ $130 $87 −$43 (-33%)
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $77 +$22 (+40%)
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $42 $59 +$17 (+39%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $43 $51 +$8 (+19%)
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $65 $50 −$16 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $101 +$30 +30%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $68 −$35 -51%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $120 +$78 +65%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $58 +$27 +46%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $32 +$18 +55%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $26 +$14 +55%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $26 +$8 +29%
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +226%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $49 +$25 +52%
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 10 $1 $0 +48%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $52 −$51 -100%
Paris: Chloe Paquet vs Maya Joint Jun 09 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 09 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 09 $203 +$46 +22%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $26 +$15 +57%
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -15%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1,666 +$3,301 +198%
Will Emma Navarro be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 07 $2 +$5 +192%
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 07 $1 $0 +41%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 07 $0 $0 +236%
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 07 $0 +$1 +161%
Will Ekaterina Alexandrova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 07 $0 $0 +183%
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 06 $9 +$49 +539%
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 02 $5 +$10 +217%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $164 +$29 +17%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $282 −$282 -100%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $30 +$66 +220%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $50 +$224 +444%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $93 +$120 +129%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $61 +$48 +79%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $60 +$12 +19%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 27 $133 +$49 +37%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $108 +$78 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $483 3h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $7 4h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 6h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 6h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $9 8h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $45 8h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $1 16h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $223 16h
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $0 17h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $33 17h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 17h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 17h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 19h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $14 24h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 25h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $80 25h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $43 25h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 25h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $80 25h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 26h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,222.04 · official $12,225.25 (match) · 3166 history records