Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f2d…2adc
politics · 49 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,566 +27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$272 · open −$1,147
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12,912
Realized−$272
Unrealized−$1,147
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions114
Markets (closed)2 / 49
History coverage4d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day944.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 114 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$272
7 days−$272
14 days−$272
30 days−$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $705 $647 −$58 (-8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $578 $566 −$12 (-2%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $636 $564 −$72 (-11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $536 $507 −$30 (-6%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $432 $440 +$8 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $341 $340 −$1 (-0%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $288 $339 +$51 (+18%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $439 $330 −$109 (-25%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $363 $324 −$39 (-11%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $331 $313 −$18 (-5%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $359 $301 −$59 (-16%)
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Yes 16¢ 14¢ $336 $281 −$55 (-16%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $269 $278 +$9 (+4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 7¢ 8¢ $273 $273 +$0 (+0%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $310 $261 −$49 (-16%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $305 $256 −$49 (-16%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $250 $256 +$6 (+2%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $296 $246 −$50 (-17%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $275 $241 −$35 (-13%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $197 $207 +$10 (+5%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $190 $200 +$10 (+5%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $241 $181 −$60 (-25%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $220 $180 −$40 (-18%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $170 $175 +$5 (+3%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $176 $171 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Jun 12 $283 −$204 -72%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? Jun 12 $70 −$68 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% −$692
politics 22% −$440
world 19% −$25
economics 6% $0
tech 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1m
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 17m
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY Yes 16¢ $2 22m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 17¢ $10 22m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 16¢ $13 22m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 27m
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45m
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 48m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 59m
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 7¢ $127 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-86.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -84.7% -86.1% 0% 0% -79.1%
≤30d 2 -84.7% -86.1% 0% 0% -79.1%
≤90d 2 -84.7% -86.1% 0% 0% -79.1%
all 2 -84.7% -86.1% 0% 0% -79.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover944.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -86.1% 0% -79.1%
10% ← realistic here -87.4% 0% -81.1%
15% -88.7% 0% -83.0%
20% -89.8% 0% -84.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,911.55 · official $12,913.12 (match) · 3500 history records