trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -39.2% | -45.0% | 33% | 33% | -44.9% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +2.4% | -7.4% | 50% | 50% | +4.6% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -9.8% | -18.4% | 48% | 43% | -14.0% |
| all | 25 | -9.7% | -18.3% | 48% | 44% | -13.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.3% | 44% | -13.5% |
| 10% | -26.1% | 40% | -21.8% |
| 15% | -33.3% | 32% | -29.3% |
| 20% | -39.8% | 28% | -36.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $11 | $13 | +$2 (+16%) |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $2 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 27¢ | 18¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-36%) |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +45% |
| Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -80% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -83% |
| Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $7 | +$2 | +28% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $3 | +$2 | +84% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $1 | +$2 | +176% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $3 | −$2 | -51% |
| Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? | May 05 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 24 | $4 | +$1 | +32% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? | Mar 31 | $5 | +$6 | +114% |
| Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" in March? | Mar 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? | Mar 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-11? | Mar 29 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Greczula win Melodifestivalen 2026? | Mar 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Mar 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7? | Mar 29 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? | Mar 26 | $3 | +$4 | +118% |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | Mar 26 | $1 | +$1 | +76% |
| Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 26 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Mar 26 | $1 | +$1 | +126% |
| Will Trump say "N Word" in March? | Mar 11 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 11 | $1 | +$1 | +50% |
| Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026? | Mar 07 | $3 | $0 | +12% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |