Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f2c…6341 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$3
world 11% +$2
politics 10% +$1
tech 1% −$1
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -39.2% -45.0% 33% 33% -44.9%
≤30d 8 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 50% +4.6%
≤90d 21 -9.8% -18.4% 48% 43% -14.0%
all 25 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 44% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 44% -13.5%
10% -26.1% 40% -21.8%
15% -33.3% 32% -29.3%
20% -39.8% 28% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage104d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $13 +$2 (+16%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +45%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -80%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 +$2 +28%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 +$2 +84%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 +$2 +176%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$2 -51%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" in March? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-11? Mar 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Greczula win Melodifestivalen 2026? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $3 +$4 +118%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Mar 26 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $1 $0 +10%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 26 $1 +$1 +126%
Will Trump say "N Word" in March? Mar 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026? Mar 07 $3 $0 +12%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 44m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes $0 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 16d
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 28d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 28d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 29d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $1 29d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 53¢ $3 29d
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 64¢ $1 29d
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 68¢ $2 29d
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 29d
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 29d
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 65¢ $7 29d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $2 29d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 29d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 29d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 34d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 36d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes $1 40d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 40d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 96¢ $5 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 73¢ $4 56d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 75d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.94 · official $15.94 (match) · 85 history records