Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3f2c…c700 crypto 1716 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,010 (+1%) realized +$3,086 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate81%1387W / 325L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,774now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 106d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$1,234
other 8% −$1,897
world 7% −$96
finance 3% +$2,206
sports 1% +$12
politics 1% −$919
tech 0% −$288
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -25.6% -32.7% 32% 29% -42.6%
≤30d 76 +5.5% -4.6% 32% 30% -27.6%
≤90d 827 +1.0% -8.6% 78% 61% -10.2%
all 1712 +0.7% -8.9% 81% 64% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 64% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 26% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 6% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$130 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$1,774
Realized+$3,086
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1387 / 325
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1712 / 1716
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$127
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1712 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,500 $1,460 −$40 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 27¢ 26¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 34¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$63 +62%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $21 +$113 +550%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$53 +52%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$6 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $103 −$14 -14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$37 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $202 +$76 +38%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$92 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$32 +16%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,010 −$2,000 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $202 +$110 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,206 +$212 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 +$332 +325%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,007 +$241 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,011 +$602 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $103 +$731 +712%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$314 +307%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $204 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 42¢ $96 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 39¢ $96 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 18¢ $102 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $102 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $102 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 10¢ $88 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $103 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 17¢ $102 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 37¢ $102 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 18¢ $97 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 4d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,774.14 · official $1,774.16 (match) · 3500 history records