Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f25…8974 other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$14
politics 32% −$12
sports 10% −$29
crypto 5% −$1
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 121 -2.5% -11.8% 8% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.2% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage126d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $266 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $605 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $171 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $220 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $174 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $215 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $316 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 03 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $222 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $190 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $218 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $202 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $166 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $182 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $207 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $205 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $208 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $331 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $178 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $234 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $628 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $380 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $236 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $201 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $398 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $415 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $396 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $402 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 14 $385 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 18h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $38 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $38 10d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $37 10d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $37 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $213 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $213 33d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $206 36d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $207 37d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $171 45d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $171 45d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 46d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 46d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $174 46d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $174 47d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $215 48d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $215 48d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $155 48d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $155 48d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $187 49d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $187 49d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $233 49d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $233 49d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $222 49d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $222 50d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 50d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 50d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $187 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 393 history records