Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f22…7f5c other 163 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,744 (-1%) realized −$1,746 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%36W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,212per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$843now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$28
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$130
politics 27% −$81
sports 18% −$1,505
world 4% −$42
culture 3% −$6
economics 3% −$6
finance 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 +3.6% -6.3% 10% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 95 -11.0% -19.5% 5% 3% -11.2%
all 161 +0.1% -9.5% 22% 9% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 9% -10.3%
10% -18.1% 9% -18.9%
15% -26.0% 9% -26.8%
20% -33.3% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,553) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$22 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$843
Realized−$1,746
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses36 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)161 / 163
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,212
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $440 $442 +$2 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $402 $401 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $1,808 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 29 $3,530 −$5 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $316 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $258 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,460 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,866 −$3 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 23 $314 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $342 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,870 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $2,938 −$4 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $1,971 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $4,542 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,289 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,430 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,727 −$4 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,190 −$2 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,759 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $897 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $48 +$27 +57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $80 +$44 +55%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,016 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $355 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $407 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $5,705 −$6 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,984 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $869 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $827 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $83 +$44 +52%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 21 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $4,425 −$5 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 20 $1,089 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $1,262 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,364 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $298 20m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $298 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $361 2h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $362 5h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $402 29h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $315 4d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $316 5d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $258 5d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $258 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $471 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $472 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $359 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $360 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $314 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $314 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $342 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $342 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $425 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $425 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $432 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $433 10d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $471 11d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $472 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $300 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $300 11d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $586 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $586 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $540 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $541 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $563 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $842.95 · official $842.95 (match) · 478 history records