Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3f20…934f sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized +$35 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%79W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$57
14 days+$75
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$25
other 14% +$30
crypto 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +42.6% +29.0% 58% 50% -5.9%
≤30d 131 +16.1% +5.0% 60% 53% -7.4%
≤90d 131 +16.1% +5.0% 60% 53% -7.4%
all 131 +16.1% +5.0% 60% 53% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.0% 53% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -5.0% 37% -16.3%
15% -14.2% 28% -24.4%
20% -22.6% 19% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses79 / 52
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)131 / 134
History coverage15d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 62¢ 63¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 54¢ 48¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $201 +$38 +19%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $16 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$5 -23%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $57 +$12 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $16 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $3 +$4 +132%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $6 +$2 +36%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $75 +$6 +9%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $101 +$34 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $12 +$9 +76%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $2 +$1 +59%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $30 +$15 +52%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $14 +$10 +70%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $6 $0 -7%
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban (BO3) - OCS Japan Sta Jun 16 $15 +$4 +29%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $6 +$4 +72%
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 16 $3 +$1 +49%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $151 +$25 +17%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $45 +$8 +17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $50 +$11 +22%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $116 +$13 +11%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $6 +$5 +75%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $51 +$25 +50%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$17 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$7 -27%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$7 -45%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$8 +160%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $46 −$5 -11%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 62¢ $3 59m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 63¢ $3 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 52¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 66¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 90¢ $150 3h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 69¢ $50 3h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 42¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 37¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 96¢ $16 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $6 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 79¢ $8 5h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 67¢ $7 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 85¢ $50 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY ex-RUBY 34¢ $0 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY ex-RUBY 34¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $10 8h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 73¢ $6 10h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 56¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 50¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY KOLESIE 26¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 34¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 45¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 45¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play BUY summer bear 58¢ $10 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $101 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 54¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.67 · official $58.67 (match) · 393 history records