Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3f1c…a94d other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,227 (-2%) realized −$1,746 · open +$519
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%47W / 42L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$790per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$5,302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$153
14 days−$153
30 days−$1,546
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$679
sports 21% +$282
crypto 13% −$74
politics 8% +$304
culture 6% −$1,695
economics 3% +$422
world 1% +$103
tech 0% −$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -85.7% -87.1% 0% 0% -85.5%
≤30d 16 -18.0% -25.8% 38% 31% -42.1%
≤90d 20 -19.8% -27.5% 35% 30% -12.0%
all 89 -16.0% -24.0% 53% 47% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 47% -12.0%
10% -31.2% 35% -20.4%
15% -37.9% 21% -28.1%
20% -44.0% 16% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,269) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$316 vs −$404 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$5,302
Realized−$1,746
Unrealized+$519
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses47 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions14
Markets (closed)89 / 103
History coverage243d
Avg bet$790
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 38¢ 55¢ $2,335 $3,347 +$1,012 (+43%)
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 44¢ $1,350 $834 −$517 (-38%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $161 $230 +$68 (+43%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $90 $208 +$118 (+132%)
APYX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $114 $123 +$9 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $170 $105 −$64 (-38%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $82 $103 +$21 (+26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $109 $102 −$6 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $109 $60 −$50 (-45%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $87 $58 −$30 (-34%)
APYX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $42 $50 +$8 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $53 $36 −$16 (-31%)
APYX FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 79¢ $41 $36 −$4 (-11%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 21¢ 5¢ $39 $9 −$30 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $102 −$73 -71%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 11 $95 +$151 +159%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $84 +$116 +138%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $188 +$112 +60%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $56 −$55 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 01 $69 −$67 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $155 +$245 +158%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,720 −$808 -47%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $204 +$46 +23%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $652 −$645 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $223 +$13 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $204 −$25 -12%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $215 −$213 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini May 31 $85 −$84 -98%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $185 −$180 -97%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $205 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $387 −$380 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 22 $4,713 −$88 -2%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 22 $2,046 +$1,899 +93%
Miami Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Mar 26 $104 +$96 +92%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 26 $28 +$3 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 26 $100 +$12 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 26 $122 +$18 +14%
Miami Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff Mar 24 $75 +$25 +34%
Miami Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine Paolini Mar 22 $285 −$285 -100%
Miami Open: Elina Svitolina vs Hailey Baptiste Mar 22 $192 −$192 -100%
Miami Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Belinda Bencic Mar 22 $120 −$120 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Arthur Fils vs Alexander Zverev Mar 12 $124 −$124 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev Mar 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 06 $234 +$66 +28%
Will "Most Advanced" or "Most Powerful" be said during the NYC Apple e Mar 04 $77 −$77 -100%
Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4 Feb 23 $170 −$170 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $98 +$102 +104%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Feb 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Feb 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $130 +$70 +54%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $130 +$70 +54%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegul Feb 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $102 −$102 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $230 +$70 +30%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Coco Gauff Feb 20 $927 +$259 +28%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Amanda Anisimo Feb 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Qatar Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Feb 19 $562 +$188 +33%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Coco Gauff vs Alexandra Eala Feb 19 $699 +$285 +41%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Mirra Andreeva vs Amanda Anisimo Feb 19 $867 +$378 +44%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Janice Tjen vs Amanda Anisimova Feb 19 $1,269 +$125 +10%
Rainbow FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 12 $92 +$24 +26%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Feb 12 $1,460 +$540 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 6¢ $29 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $4 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $7 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $7 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $6 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $3 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $6 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $6 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $6 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $381 17d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $84 17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $55 17d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $89 17d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $92 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $112 17d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $112 17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $165 17d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $174 17d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 68¢ $81 21d
APYX FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 8¢ $45 22d
APYX FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 88¢ $41 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,301.67 · official $5,308.38 (match) · 429 history records