Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f18…2080 sports 803 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,413 (+0%) realized +$1,205 · open +$208
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate67%528W / 262L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$560per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$420est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 166d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$3,658
crypto 16% +$868
other 6% −$209
world 5% +$457
economics 3% −$47
culture 0% +$135
politics 0% +$11
tech 0% +$6
finance 0% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -13.1% -21.4% 50% 36% -25.3%
≤30d 40 -17.0% -24.9% 58% 32% -20.8%
≤90d 259 -27.7% -34.6% 54% 27% -30.3%
all 790 -2.3% -11.6% 67% 39% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 39% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 28% -18.7%
15% -27.8% 17% -26.5%
20% -34.9% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$210 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$2,718
Realized+$1,205
Unrealized+$208
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses528 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$420
Open positions13
Markets (closed)790 / 803
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$560
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 790 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $573 $751 +$178 (+31%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $494 $478 −$15 (-3%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 89¢ 93¢ $445 $466 +$22 (+5%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $182 $192 +$10 (+5%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 16¢ $95 $175 +$79 (+83%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $132 $128 −$4 (-3%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Las Vegas Aces 56¢ 56¢ $112 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 73¢ 74¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $106 $80 −$26 (-24%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $80 $75 −$5 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $86 $66 −$20 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $63 $56 −$6 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $54 $49 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $155 +$25 +16%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $92 −$12 -13%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) Jun 18 $15 +$3 +21%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,823 +$16 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $270 +$10 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $134 +$66 +49%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$12 -12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,000 −$64 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $910 −$910 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -93%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $579 −$181 -31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $26 −$20 -78%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $345 +$16 +5%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 07 $13 +$7 +52%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 07 $140 +$60 +43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 +$39 +77%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $33 +$9 +28%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $281 +$77 +28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $186 +$14 +8%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,300 −$232 -18%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 31 $10 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $102 +$96 +94%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $350 −$350 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 26 $67 −$67 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng May 25 $83 +$17 +20%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $2,439 +$61 +2%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 24 $11 −$11 -95%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $36 +$14 +41%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 22 $191 +$9 +5%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $275 +$25 +9%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 15 $518 +$7 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 May 15 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $134 +$33 +25%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 14 $16 +$4 +28%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) May 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Dallas Wings 30¢ $15 10m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Dallas Wings 30¢ $15 10m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 15¢ $7 22m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 15¢ $0 23m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 15¢ $1 23m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 56¢ $28 24m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 56¢ $28 24m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 56¢ $56 24m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 23¢ $3 32m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 23¢ $2 32m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 23¢ $6 33m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $134 43m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $4 43m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $2 43m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $4 43m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $4 45m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $2 45m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 32¢ $22 59m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 32¢ $5 59m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 32¢ $5 59m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $0 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $10 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $19 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $12 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $10 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $14 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $19 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $3 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $8 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,718.50 · official $2,718.50 (match) · 3500 history records