Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f18…7868 politics 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 697d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$25
other 2% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 95 -9.3% -17.9% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -33.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

697d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage697d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $57 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? Mar 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will FCSB win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Feb 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Nov 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will Leicester City be relegated? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Another actor announced as next James Bond actor? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Raj Rao announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC South? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Hurts win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Macron out as president of France in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "mog" in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the match between Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig end in a draw? Dec 20 $1 $0 -3%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Utah win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Giants win the NFC Championship? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Brian Blase be Trump's HHS Secretary? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Patrick Surtain II win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Nov 25 $0 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 13h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 11d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $57 20d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $57 21d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $57 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $24 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $0 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $2 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $2 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $3 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $2 26d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $2 26d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $23 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 38d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 39d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $57 43d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 44d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 51d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 51d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 68d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 69d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $60 79d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $60 80d
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? SELL No 100¢ $60 89d
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 90d
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? BUY No 100¢ $52 90d
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 90d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records