Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:49:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3F 0x3f17…bf48 other 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,075 (-1%) realized −$1,075 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate20%31W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,333per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$21
14 days+$16
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1,146
politics 33% −$81
sports 8% +$135
culture 3% −$3
world 2% −$4
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 47 +1.5% -8.2% 13% 9% -9.6%
≤90d 123 -7.1% -15.9% 9% 6% -10.7%
all 156 +4.1% -5.8% 20% 14% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 14% -10.0%
10% -14.8% 14% -18.6%
15% -23.1% 12% -26.5%
20% -30.6% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,964) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$24 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$1,075
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses31 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,333
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,389 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $425 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $374 +$2 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4,980 −$6 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7,781 −$8 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 11 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $348 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,973 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,680 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $658 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $899 −$1 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $66 +$51 +76%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $519 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,695 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $554 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,158 −$2 -0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 02 $60 +$37 +62%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $225 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,934 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 26 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $533 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $58 +$54 +93%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $4,334 −$4 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $519 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $58 +$25 +44%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $9,448 −$10 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,749 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,855 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $823 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $824 3h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $815 4h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $816 6h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $424 6h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $425 9h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $428 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $429 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $438 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $438 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $452 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $453 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $454 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $454 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $443 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $444 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $453 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $454 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $438 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $439 5d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $454 7d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $455 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $347 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $348 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $453 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $453 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $458 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $458 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $539 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $199 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.33 · official $199.33 (match) · 545 history records