Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f14…4adb crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$401 (+19%) realized +$401 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate55%66W / 54L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$227
7 days+$432
14 days+$381
30 days+$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$381
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -5.6% -14.5% 58% 39% +10.0%
≤30d 120 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 37% +7.2%
≤90d 120 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 37% +7.2%
all 120 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 37% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 37% +7.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 26% -3.0%
15% -33.7% 24% -12.4%
20% -40.2% 21% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$401
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses66 / 54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage9d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $82 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$10 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$38 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $58 +$65 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$124 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$82 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$38 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$13 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$10 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$8 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$9 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$9 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $24 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $22 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $17 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $19 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $19 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $17 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 452 history records