Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f13…edcf weather 455 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$937 (-1%) realized −$1,467 · open +$530
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate90%414W / 46L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day93.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,325
7 days−$5,692
14 days−$5,518
30 days−$7,244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% −$448
crypto 4% −$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -9.9% -18.5% 75% 11% -26.3%
≤30d 423 +1.5% -8.2% 90% 9% -15.4%
≤90d 460 +3.0% -6.8% 90% 9% -10.8%
all 460 +3.0% -6.8% 90% 9% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 9% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 7% -19.3%
15% -23.9% 6% -27.1%
20% -31.3% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$231 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$7,393
Realized−$1,467
Unrealized+$530
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses414 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)460 / 455
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$336
Trades / day93.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $5,076 $5,414 +$337 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,311 $1,364 +$53 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? No 73¢ 100¢ $369 $506 +$137 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $107 $110 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 54-55°F on May Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 53°F or below on May 26 Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on May Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 17 $79 −$91 -115%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $122 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,199 −$2,088 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4,563 −$3,905 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $77 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $321 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $296 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,684 +$96 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $452 +$93 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $300 −$13 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3,090 +$294 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $905 −$112 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,897 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $210 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $832 +$12 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5,754 +$295 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$8 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $296 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$34 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $130 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $423 +$23 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $115 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $134 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$4 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$11 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $7 32m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $77 51m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $146 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $189 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $190 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $187 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $234 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $386 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $169 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $388 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $291 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $92 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,393.46 · official $7,393.46 (match) · 3500 history records