Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f11…3892 other 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$362 (-6%) realized −$359 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$46
14 days−$13
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$73
other 40% −$436
world 1% −$20
crypto 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +90.0% +71.9% 67% 67% +106.5%
≤30d 18 +34.2% +21.4% 50% 50% -15.4%
≤90d 87 -9.9% -18.4% 38% 38% -15.8%
all 87 -9.9% -18.4% 38% 38% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 38% -15.8%
10% -26.3% 34% -23.9%
15% -33.4% 30% -31.2%
20% -39.9% 25% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$35 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$359
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 54
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage82d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-15%)
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals Yes 10¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 25 $25 +$26 +101%
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 +$22 +269%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $123 −$122 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $95 +$28 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $58 +$37 +63%
Junya Itō: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 +$33 +639%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $27 +$17 +63%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Breel Embolo: 3+ goals Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$1 -1%
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals Jun 13 $12 +$20 +162%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $15 −$15 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $30 −$14 -48%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $24 +$6 +24%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1 $0 -6%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 23 $204 −$174 -85%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $292 −$287 -98%
Will Ventforet Kōfu win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $177 +$218 +124%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 22 $352 −$76 -22%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $297 +$129 +43%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $212 −$210 -99%
Istanbul: Franco Agamenone vs Andrej Nedic May 22 $64 +$43 +67%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $306 +$97 +32%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Katarina Zavatska vs Lucia Bronzetti May 22 $497 −$128 -26%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 22 $400 +$97 +24%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov May 22 $43 +$16 +37%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $514 +$57 +11%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CA Juventud end in a draw? May 21 $185 +$172 +93%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $106 +$49 +46%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $92 +$14 +16%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $56 +$36 +64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $102 −$7 -7%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $149 +$98 +66%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $48 +$70 +145%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $20 +$28 +139%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-04-19? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-19? Apr 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $51 4m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $14 54m
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $15 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 92¢ $30 1h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 2h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $2 11h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $2 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $123 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $123 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $95 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $95 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $58 10d
Junya Itō: 1+ assists SELL Yes 95¢ $38 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 11d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 11d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $45 11d
Junya Itō: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $27 11d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $40 12d
Breel Embolo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $8 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $48 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $31 12d
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals SELL Yes 94¢ $32 12d
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $6 12d
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $6 12d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $17 12d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $15 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.05 · official $13.05 (match) · 179 history records