Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f0c…51db sports 1324 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,823 (-5%) realized −$5,872 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%614W / 703L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$1,080est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$46
14 days−$52
30 days−$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$2,876
crypto 27% −$3,967
other 1% −$942
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +56.7% +41.8% 47% 47% -1.1%
≤30d 121 -8.1% -16.8% 42% 41% -20.8%
≤90d 1272 -12.6% -21.0% 46% 45% -15.8%
all 1317 -12.5% -20.8% 47% 45% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 45% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 43% -23.8%
15% -35.3% 37% -31.2%
20% -41.7% 31% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$74 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$5,872
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses614 / 703
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,080
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1317 / 1324
History coverage95d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 39¢ 77¢ $50 $99 +$49 (+99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 336 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $48 +$57 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $28 −$27 -95%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $21 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corner Jun 23 $21 +$83 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$80 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $38 +$19 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$16 +52%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $50 +$16 +32%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $44 −$43 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$41 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$18 -97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $36 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$17 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $39 −$39 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $19 +$21 +109%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $29 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $42 +$8 +19%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $24 +$18 +76%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $22 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $43 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $28 +$75 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 07 $36 +$31 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $20 −$3 -13%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Heather Watson vs Beatriz Haddad Ma Jun 07 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 07 $39 −$38 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $18 +$21 +114%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$20 +97%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$19 +93%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$18 +87%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $20 +$12 +58%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $19 +$36 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner SELL 9INE 100¢ $105 0m
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner BUY 9INE 45¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner SELL 9INE 100¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY 9INE 73¢ $21 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 61¢ $40 3h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner BUY AM Gaming 43¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 14h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corner SELL 98¢ $104 22h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corner BUY 19¢ $21 23h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 A BUY 21¢ $21 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Panama vs. C BUY 100¢ $19 25h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 BUY 28¢ $23 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $37 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $7 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $38 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $30 27h
Yoane Wissa: 2+ shots AND Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Colombia vs. DR Cong BUY 35¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $30 27h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY 30¢ $10 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND João Félix: 1+ goals AND Portugal BUY 39¢ $27 27h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner SELL Sharks 100¢ $66 27h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner BUY Sharks 75¢ $50 28h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 40¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.70 · official $122.15 · 3321 history records