Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3f0c…5292 sports 708 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,351 (+4%) realized +$4,349 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%290W / 415L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$1,524est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$2,000
crypto 28% −$664
other 19% −$1,123
world 0% +$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -49.6% -54.4% 20% 13% -57.6%
≤30d 44 -30.7% -37.3% 32% 30% -61.2%
≤90d 705 -13.6% -21.8% 41% 39% -9.2%
all 705 -13.6% -21.8% 41% 39% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 39% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 34% -17.9%
15% -36.1% 28% -25.8%
20% -42.4% 23% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$125 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$4,349
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses290 / 415
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,524
Open positions2
Markets (closed)705 / 708
History coverage74d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $44 −$12 -27%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $69 −$65 -94%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$40 -94%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $131 −$118 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 26 $102 −$99 -98%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Trabzonspor May 26 $76 +$26 +35%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 26 $34 −$34 -99%
Vicenza: Samuele Pieri vs Jerome Kym May 26 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 25 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 23 $4 +$5 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 23 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 23 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 23 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 22 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 22 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 22 $18 −$9 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 22 $16 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 22 $5 +$12 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 22 $5 +$11 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 22 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 22 $15 +$13 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 22 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 22 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 22 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 22 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 22 $23 −$6 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 22 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 22 $17 +$7 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $32 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $12 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 23h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $53 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $49 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY 9¢ $21 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.56 · official $28.56 (match) · 3061 history records