Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f0b…3c1e other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$27
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$26
politics 27% −$14
crypto 15% −$4
sports 14% −$12
culture 5% −$5
world 4% −$2
finance 3% −$3
economics 1% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.1% -10.5% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 59 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 115 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
all 131 -0.5% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 112
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage107d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 18 $36 −$2 -5%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $252 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $25 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $66 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $206 −$2 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $133 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $332 −$1 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $45 −$2 -4%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $55 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $44 $0 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $104 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $58 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $135 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $154 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $99 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $207 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,603 −$3 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $115 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $60 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $60 6h
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $49 6h
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 89¢ $34 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 93¢ $36 15h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $62 16h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 24h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $68 24h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $68 30h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 31h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 35h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $25 36h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $6 41h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $19 41h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 41h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 46h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $65 47h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $66 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $38 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $39 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $11 2d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $11 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.89 · official $51.89 (match) · 539 history records