Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f0b…d571
weather · 876 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$503 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$527 · open +$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$439
Realized−$527
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses421 / 347
Open positions108
Markets (closed)768 / 876
History coverage20d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day143.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 108 History 768 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$70
14 days−$1,459
30 days−$527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+108%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Yes 44¢ 96¢ $6 $13 +$7 (+121%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Yes 38¢ 98¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+158%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? No 91¢ 88¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Yes 27¢ 64¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+143%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? No 92¢ 93¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? No 81¢ 94¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? Yes 85¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? No 89¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? No 88¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? No 90¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Yes 78¢ 68¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? No 83¢ 96¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Yes 40¢ 54¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Yes 46¢ 60¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 74¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+118%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? No 95¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 21? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $12 −$11 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$14 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$6 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$11 +343%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$8 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$513
other 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 37m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $1 37m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 +5.9% -4.2% 53% 37% -3.7%
≤30d 768 -1.8% -11.2% 55% 35% -14.4%
≤90d 768 -1.8% -11.2% 55% 35% -14.4%
all 768 -1.8% -11.2% 55% 35% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover143.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 35% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 27% -22.6%
15% -27.4% 24% -30.1%
20% -34.6% 22% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.30 · official $439.41 (match) · 3500 history records