Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:06:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

3F 0x3f0b…5720 sports 794 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d

BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover

✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1,954 (+12%) realized +$2,415 · open −$461

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR51%break-even

Win rate53%415W / 372L

Drawdown45%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day86.1pace

Fees−$204est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$678

7 days+$412

14 days+$1,049

30 days+$1,565

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +51%

net ROI/market (all)-9.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	102	-11.9%	-20.3%	46%	44%	+0.7%
≤30d	610	+0.0%	-9.5%	51%	50%	+1.0%
≤90d	787	+0.5%	-9.1%	53%	51%	+1.2%
all	787	+0.5%	-9.1%	53%	51%	+1.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover86.1 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-9.1%	51%	+1.2%
10% ← realistic here	-17.8%	42%	-8.5%
15%	-25.7%	33%	-17.3%
20%	-33.0%	24%	-25.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

3% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late +3% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.41 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage

Net worth$86

Realized+$2,415

Unrealized−$461

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses415 / 372

Est. fees paid−$204

Open positions7

Markets (closed)787 / 794

History coverage33d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day86.1

Drawdown45%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 787 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Sweden	70¢	100¢	$52	$75	+$22 (+43%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)	Detroit Tigers	77¢	100¢	$4	$5	+$1 (+29%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)	Houston Astros	59¢	99¢	$3	$5	+$2 (+69%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	Netherlands	56¢	0¢	$209	$0	−$209 (-100%)
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5)	Netherlands	34¢	0¢	$124	$0	−$124 (-100%)
Spread: Netherlands (-5.5)	Netherlands	15¢	0¢	$33	$0	−$33 (-100%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	Netherlands	75¢	0¢	$120	$0	−$120 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 294 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Curaçao (-5.5)	Jun 25	$4	+$1	+15%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	Jun 25	$2	−$2	-100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	Jun 25	$102	−$2	-2%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 25	$71	+$38	+53%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)	Jun 25	$8	+$2	+22%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 25	$203	+$43	+21%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 25	$266	+$297	+112%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 25	$235	+$326	+138%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	Jun 24	$16	−$16	-100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	Jun 24	$59	−$59	-100%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5)	Jun 24	$1	−$1	-97%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)	Jun 24	$232	+$168	+73%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 24	$122	+$28	+23%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)	Jun 24	$41	+$9	+22%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5)	Jun 24	$119	−$118	-98%
Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-3.5)	Jun 24	$39	−$38	-98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)	Jun 24	$1	−$1	-100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 24	$297	+$3	+1%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5)	Jun 24	$152	−$2	-1%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)	Jun 24	$3	+$2	+55%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)	Jun 24	$3	+$2	+49%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)	Jun 24	$4	+$1	+25%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)	Jun 24	$3	+$2	+49%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)	Jun 24	$4	+$6	+186%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)	Jun 24	$3	−$3	-99%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)	Jun 24	$2	−$2	-98%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)	Jun 24	$1	−$1	-100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	Jun 24	$2	−$2	-100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)	Jun 24	$8	−$3	-40%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 23	$47	−$46	-98%
Spread: England (-2.5)	Jun 23	$4	−$4	-99%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	Jun 23	$22	−$17	-79%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5)	Jun 23	$172	−$72	-42%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$31	−$31	-100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 23	$59	+$46	+77%
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Jun 23	$4	+$1	+24%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)	Jun 23	$3	+$2	+79%
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 23	$4	+$6	+129%
Spread: France (-3.5)	Jun 23	$72	−$70	-98%
Spread: France (-4.5)	Jun 23	$16	−$16	-100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)	Jun 22	$2	−$2	-98%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)	Jun 22	$1	−$1	-100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$232	+$258	+112%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	Jun 22	$14	−$14	-100%
Spread: Uruguay (-5.5)	Jun 22	$9	+$1	+12%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 22	$15	+$5	+30%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 21	$7	+$3	+47%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	Jun 21	$0	$0	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)	BUY Detroit Tigers	77¢	$4	4m
Spread: Netherlands (-5.5)	BUY Netherlands	12¢	$9	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5)	BUY Netherlands	28¢	$21	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Netherlands	52¢	$40	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-5.5)	BUY Netherlands	13¢	$0	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-5.5)	BUY Netherlands	13¢	$4	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5)	BUY Netherlands	31¢	$3	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Netherlands	53¢	$16	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5)	BUY Netherlands	31¢	$0	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5)	BUY Netherlands	30¢	$6	1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Sweden	70¢	$52	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Netherlands	57¢	$17	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-5.5)	BUY Netherlands	18¢	$5	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5)	BUY Netherlands	37¢	$11	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-5.5)	BUY Netherlands	19¢	$14	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5)	BUY Netherlands	35¢	$27	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Netherlands	57¢	$43	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Netherlands	58¢	$3	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5)	BUY Netherlands	37¢	$2	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	BUY Netherlands	77¢	$0	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	BUY Netherlands	77¢	$8	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	BUY Netherlands	77¢	$4	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	BUY Netherlands	77¢	$5	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	BUY Netherlands	77¢	$5	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	BUY Netherlands	77¢	$8	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	BUY Netherlands	77¢	$31	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	BUY Netherlands	77¢	$2	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	BUY Netherlands	74¢	$27	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5)	BUY Netherlands	37¢	$56	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Netherlands	59¢	$89	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.68 · official $85.18 (match) · 3360 history records