Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3f06…c2f1 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$107 (+4%) realized +$103 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$82
14 days+$133
30 days+$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$81
world 17% +$102
sports 10% +$100
tech 3% −$17
politics 2% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +19.6% +8.2% 55% 55% +7.4%
≤30d 19 +8.6% -1.7% 58% 53% +0.7%
≤90d 24 -2.6% -11.8% 54% 50% -4.9%
all 32 -11.3% -19.7% 47% 44% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 44% -5.5%
10% -27.4% 38% -14.6%
15% -34.4% 31% -22.8%
20% -40.8% 28% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$25 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage590d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 54¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$48 +118%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$18 +88%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $53 +$58 +108%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$18 -60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $49 +$96 +197%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 08 $102 −$17 -17%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $915 +$69 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $140 +$20 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $176 +$20 +11%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $102 +$71 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $150 +$38 +25%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 26 $20 −$19 -96%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 23 $43 −$27 -64%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $59 +$8 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 13 $52 +$24 +46%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Liverpool finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag May 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 03 $493 −$3 -1%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-01? Nov 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Nov 03 $6 −$3 -58%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 7? Nov 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Nov 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Chelsea vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Score Oct 25 $6 +$5 +95%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $50 +$32 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $41 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $89 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $41 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $43 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 79¢ $38 21h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 41¢ $20 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 47¢ $53 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $79 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 15¢ $12 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $31 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 2¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $49 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO SELL No 35¢ $85 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $388 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $160 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $196 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $189 20d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 22d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 22d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $179 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.67 · official $43.67 (match) · 171 history records