Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3f05…85c5 sports 476 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$169 (-0%) realized −$169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%305W / 171L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$614est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$897
7 days+$897
14 days+$897
30 days−$1,406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$559
other 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +20.9% +9.4% 84% 79% +20.1%
≤30d 52 -9.8% -18.4% 62% 56% -22.8%
≤90d 316 -0.8% -10.3% 63% 59% -12.5%
all 476 +2.3% -7.5% 64% 59% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 59% -10.1%
10% -16.3% 52% -18.7%
15% -24.4% 42% -26.5%
20% -31.8% 27% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$158 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses305 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$614
Open positions0
Markets (closed)476 / 476
History coverage155d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 476 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $176 +$55 +32%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $192 +$83 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $86 +$6 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $275 +$111 +40%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $400 +$174 +43%
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 28 $67 +$35 +52%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $131 +$36 +27%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $180 +$51 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $281 +$44 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $283 +$53 +19%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $22 +$10 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $65 −$41 -64%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $101 +$164 +163%
ITF Bergamo: Pietro Romeo Scomparin vs Giovanni Oradini Jun 27 $120 +$30 +25%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $49 +$20 +40%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 27 $100 +$65 +64%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $184 +$30 +16%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $137 −$137 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $97 +$33 +34%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $360 −$360 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $40 −$36 -91%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $527 −$527 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $38 +$21 +57%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $136 −$136 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $223 −$223 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $117 +$12 +10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $66 −$66 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $51 +$15 +30%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $40 +$68 +172%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 4 Winner May 31 $198 −$198 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 31 $999 −$792 -79%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 30 $189 +$112 +59%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $520 +$100 +19%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $706 −$57 -8%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner May 30 $185 −$163 -88%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner May 30 $76 +$5 +7%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 30 $194 +$96 +49%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $201 +$87 +43%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $72 +$21 +29%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $337 +$86 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $186 +$57 +30%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $143 +$44 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $232 4m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $100 17m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 84¢ $76 26m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $275 27m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 69¢ $192 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $92 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $86 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $387 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 61¢ $99 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 77¢ $176 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $574 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 69¢ $400 4h
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 65¢ $67 16h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $166 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 78¢ $131 24h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $232 24h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $151 25h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 78¢ $29 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $325 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $181 27h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $100 27h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $336 27h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 83¢ $50 28h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $233 29h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 29h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $22 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 18¢ $23 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $65 31h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 94¢ $265 39h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 35¢ $101 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1150 history records