Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3efa…3059 world 22 markets active 3d ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$1
other 10% −$1
tech 2% −$3
politics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.2% -11.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 22% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 22% 0% -9.9%
all 22 -7.6% -16.4% 41% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 0% -10.9%
10% -24.4% 0% -19.4%
15% -31.7% 0% -27.2%
20% -38.4% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage448d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $25 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $57 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Dec 11 $4 −$4 -93%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Dec 11 $6 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 22 $2 $0 +9%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 21 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $41 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $41 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $34 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $42 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $42 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $37 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $5 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $42 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $41 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $40 8d
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 353d
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 353d
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 353d
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 353d
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 353d
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 353d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records