Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ef3…0740 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-7%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%16W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$42
other 35% −$42
sports 7% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +23.8% +12.0% 34% 30% -4.5%
≤30d 47 +23.8% +12.0% 34% 30% -4.5%
≤90d 47 +23.8% +12.0% 34% 30% -4.5%
all 47 +23.8% +12.0% 34% 30% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 30% -4.5%
10% +1.3% 28% -13.6%
15% -8.5% 28% -22.0%
20% -17.5% 26% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses16 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $76 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$42 +414%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -62%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +344%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +339%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +324%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$11 -56%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1466%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 26h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records