Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ef1…ec69 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$4
other 18% −$14
politics 6% +$1
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.8% -11.2% 60% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -10.3%
all 34 -7.1% -15.9% 44% 3% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 3% -11.9%
10% -24.0% 3% -20.3%
15% -31.3% 3% -28.0%
20% -38.1% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage468d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $23 −$2 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $65 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $75 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $3 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $42 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $36 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $18 −$1 -7%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $13 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? May 07 $4 −$3 -75%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 06 $3 $0 +9%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 01 $2 +$1 +36%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $11 $0 +0%
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? Mar 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in March? Mar 26 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Jew" or "Jewish" 3+ times during his presser with Irel Mar 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Brad Garlinghouse attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? Mar 11 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $21 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $23 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $24 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $3 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $43 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $8 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.79 · official $34.79 (match) · 104 history records