Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:04:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ef1…449d crypto 218 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%88W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.3% -14.3% 56% 44% -14.9%
≤30d 9 -5.3% -14.3% 56% 44% -14.9%
≤90d 218 -3.9% -13.0% 40% 30% -12.8%
all 218 -3.9% -13.0% 40% 30% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 30% -12.8%
10% -21.4% 23% -21.1%
15% -29.0% 18% -28.7%
20% -35.9% 12% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses88 / 130
Open positions0
Markets (closed)218 / 218
History coverage66d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 218 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 15 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 15 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 15 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 14 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 14 $1 +$2 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 13 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$4 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 13 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 13 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$2 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 928 history records