trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner | Tundra Esports | 18¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $288 | $0 | −$288 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $6,303 | +$773 | +12% |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 05 | $535 | +$5 | +1% |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Apr 18 | $4,484 | +$389 | +9% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Dec 14 | $1,614 | +$932 | +58% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Dec 12 | $1,688 | +$230 | +14% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | Dec 12 | $401 | +$189 | +47% |
| MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour? | Dec 12 | $5,065 | +$347 | +7% |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Dec 09 | $1,773 | −$1,074 | -61% |
| MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? | Nov 25 | $966 | +$1,450 | +150% |
| Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner | Nov 17 | $29 | −$20 | -67% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +12.3% | +1.6% | 100% | 100% | +1.6% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +6.6% | -3.5% | 100% | 50% | +0.8% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +7.3% | -2.9% | 100% | 33% | -0.2% |
| all | 10 | +9.7% | -0.7% | 80% | 50% | +7.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -0.7% | 50% | +7.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -10.2% | 30% | -2.8% |
| 15% | -18.9% | 30% | -12.2% |
| 20% | -26.8% | 20% | -20.8% |