Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3E 0x3eee…0458 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$240 (+10%) realized +$275 · open −$35

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip

Net edge+51%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate50%7W / 7L

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$158per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$766now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days−$50

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+50.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	13	+63.9%	+48.3%	46%	38%	-10.0%
all	14	+66.5%	+50.6%	50%	43%	+3.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+50.6%	43%	+3.8%
10%	+36.2%	29%	-6.1%
15%	+23.1%	29%	-15.2%
20%	+11.0%	21%	-23.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +67% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +201% → late -68% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$87 vs −$52 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage

Net worth$766

Realized+$275

Unrealized−$35

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses7 / 7

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)14 / 16

History coverage99d

Avg bet$158

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$786	$756	−$30 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$14	$10	−$4 (-31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting?	May 10	$67	+$5	+8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?	May 10	$14	−$14	-97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?	May 10	$154	−$150	-98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score	May 05	$102	−$100	-98%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	May 03	$10	−$10	-100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	May 01	$303	+$40	+13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	May 01	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?	Apr 29	$516	+$68	+13%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Apr 27	$169	+$82	+49%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?	Apr 19	$28	−$28	-100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Apr 14	$10	+$7	+69%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Apr 07	$11	+$152	+1378%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?	Mar 29	$255	+$256	+100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$270	1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$231	1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$309	3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$14	10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	15d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting?	SELL Yes	87¢	$73	50d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	50d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	50d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	13¢	$2	50d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	50d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?	BUY Yes	22¢	$102	50d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting?	BUY Yes	80¢	$67	53d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$102	55d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	57d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	SELL Yes	94¢	$343	59d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	BUY Yes	82¢	$303	61d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?	SELL No	89¢	$584	61d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	63d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	SELL No	95¢	$251	63d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	BUY No	64¢	$118	75d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	BUY No	64¢	$40	75d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	BUY No	64¢	$11	75d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	27¢	$17	76d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	77d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	SELL Yes	65¢	$163	83d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?	BUY Yes	6¢	$28	83d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	83d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	83d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	83d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?	BUY No	79¢	$516	92d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $765.64 · official $765.64 (match) · 44 history records