Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3eee…0958 politics 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate17%9W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 84% −$14
politics 10% −$6
other 3% −$9
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% −$25
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.9% -24.8% 0% 0% -16.3%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 39 -9.3% -18.0% 15% 8% -12.3%
all 52 -7.2% -16.0% 17% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 6% -9.8%
10% -24.1% 6% -18.4%
15% -31.4% 6% -26.3%
20% -38.1% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses9 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage599d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $59 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $56 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 12 $41 +$3 +7%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +83%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $7 +$7 +104%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $20 $0 +1%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Mar 27 $26 −$26 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 22 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? Mar 05 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $76 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 29 $13,531 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $328 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 28h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $7 6d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $11 9d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $11 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $11 22d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 22d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.80 · official $25.80 (match) · 214 history records