Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3eed…2050 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,487 (+4%) realized +$2,446 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate71%46W / 19L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$864per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Kalshi-fit2%portable
Net worth$598now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days−$164
14 days+$227
30 days+$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$1,091
world 1% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.2% -23.3% 60% 20% -14.3%
≤30d 29 -3.9% -13.1% 69% 10% -8.5%
≤90d 65 +32.4% +19.7% 71% 14% -7.7%
all 65 +32.4% +19.7% 71% 14% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.7% 14% -7.7%
10% +8.3% 5% -16.6%
15% ← realistic here -2.2% 3% -24.6%
20% -11.8% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,090) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +69% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
17.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$61 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$598
Realized+$2,446
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses46 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$864
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit2%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $500 $547 +$47 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 62¢ 72¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $324 +$54 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $314 −$300 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $607 +$31 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $639 −$23 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,260 +$73 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $31 +$6 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2,079 +$157 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,441 +$47 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $430 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,237 +$35 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,725 +$105 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $222 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,002 +$41 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $3,234 −$62 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2,295 +$179 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $495 −$32 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,777 −$104 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $84 +$6 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $809 +$93 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $63 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $839 +$51 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $807 −$42 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $790 −$14 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $1,461 +$24 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $398 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3,975 −$37 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $1,012 −$7 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $460 −$14 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $698 +$60 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $241 +$19 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $346 +$39 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $1,051 +$41 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $1,209 +$36 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $2,596 −$114 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $2,831 −$173 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $343 +$17 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $1,346 −$12 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $786 −$8 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $703 +$119 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $64 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $958 +$99 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $251 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $1,204 +$100 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $872 −$73 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $1,106 +$27 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $228 +$16 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $1,971 +$181 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $29 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $41 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $25 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $25 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $35 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $32 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $34 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $76 27h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $29 27h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $27 31h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 31h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $24 31h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 31h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 31h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 31h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $46 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.08 · official $598.08 (match) · 3500 history records