Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3eec…6b3d
sports · 29 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$1,700 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,610 · open −$34
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$3,526
Realized+$1,610
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions17
Markets (closed)12 / 29
History coverage3d
Avg bet$496
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 17 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,660
7 days+$1,610
14 days+$1,610
30 days+$1,610
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 72¢ 70¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 66¢ 66¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 65¢ 68¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 44¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,005 +$491 +49%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2,684 +$193 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 +$333 +163%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,325 +$1,395 +105%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,565 −$1,465 -94%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,215 −$232 -19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 +$63 +13%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1,380 +$147 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $659 +$720 +109%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% +$695
other 31% +$887
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $202 16m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $134 16m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $508 43m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 65¢ $101 49m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 56m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $203 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $201 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $152 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $152 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $153 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $1,115 6h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $121 6h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $2,877 6h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 45¢ $379 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 53¢ $381 7h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $2,684 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 69¢ $505 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 52¢ $538 12h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 13h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,720 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +25.8% +13.8% 75% 58% +4.2%
≤30d 12 +25.8% +13.8% 75% 58% +4.2%
≤90d 12 +25.8% +13.8% 75% 58% +4.2%
all 12 +25.8% +13.8% 75% 58% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.8% 58% +4.2%
10% +2.9% 42% -5.8%
15% ← realistic here -7.0% 42% -14.9%
20% -16.2% 33% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,526.16 · official $3,526.16 (match) · 53 history records