Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3eeb…3300 sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$1,316 (+8%) realized +$1,329 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate69%43W / 19L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$677
14 days+$1,010
30 days+$1,139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,003
other 6% +$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +17.9% +6.7% 86% 73% +1.8%
≤30d 53 +13.0% +2.2% 75% 68% -2.6%
≤90d 62 +9.9% -0.6% 69% 63% -3.1%
all 62 +9.9% -0.6% 69% 63% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 63% -3.1%
10% -10.1% 47% -12.4%
15% -18.8% 34% -20.8%
20% -26.7% 19% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$134 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized+$1,329
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses43 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage74d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti Cosme de Ravel 53¢ 50¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-6%)
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen FC Bayern Munchen 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $301 +$40 +13%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 17 $222 +$131 +59%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $301 +$36 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $202 +$92 +46%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $303 +$115 +38%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $202 +$133 +66%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $202 +$97 +48%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $202 +$120 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $503 −$503 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $302 +$88 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $301 +$52 +17%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $401 +$38 +10%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $200 +$5 +2%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $151 +$2 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $151 +$63 +42%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $172 +$65 +38%
Spread: BC Lietkabelis Panevezys (-5.5) Jun 13 $324 +$202 +62%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $302 +$75 +25%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 11 $277 +$66 +24%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 11 $246 +$162 +66%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 09 $327 +$105 +32%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bears Jun 04 $202 −$43 -22%
Valencia vs. Bilbao Basket Jun 04 $251 +$45 +18%
Fenerbahce vs. Anadolu Efes Jun 04 $252 +$83 +33%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 03 $202 −$168 -83%
Paris Basketball vs. Cholet Jun 03 $573 −$214 -37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $251 +$27 +11%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 02 $360 +$128 +35%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $507 −$89 -18%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 02 $251 +$40 +16%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn Jun 02 $326 +$43 +13%
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Cholet May 30 $305 −$302 -99%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn May 30 $326 +$43 +13%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 30 $501 −$28 -6%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $405 −$17 -4%
Valencia vs. Gran Canaria May 29 $251 +$51 +20%
Saski Baskonia vs. Unicaja May 29 $252 +$75 +30%
Manresa vs. Real Madrid May 29 $252 −$250 -99%
Galatasaray vs. Besiktas May 28 $955 −$21 -2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $253 +$167 +66%
BC Dubai vs. Buducnost May 28 $252 +$69 +27%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $202 +$137 +68%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $152 +$86 +57%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 26 $151 +$63 +42%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $152 +$126 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $252 +$86 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti BUY Cosme de Ravel 53¢ $203 1h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY FC Bayern Munchen 63¢ $10 5h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY FC Bayern Munchen 62¢ $10 5h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY FC Bayern Munchen 62¢ $10 5h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 88¢ $301 29h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY FC Bayern Munchen 63¢ $202 31h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY FC Bayern Munchen 56¢ $10 46h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY FC Bayern Munchen 54¢ $10 46h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 55¢ $101 2d
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 54¢ $203 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 67¢ $202 3d
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 89¢ $301 3d
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 51¢ $152 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $202 3d
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 72¢ $101 3d
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 72¢ $101 3d
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 72¢ $101 3d
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 67¢ $202 3d
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 62¢ $202 3d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 60¢ $202 3d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $200 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 91¢ $50 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 91¢ $351 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 74¢ $153 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $151 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $151 5d
Spread: BC Lietkabelis Panevezys (-5.5) BUY BC Neptunas Klaipeda 69¢ $71 5d
Spread: BC Lietkabelis Panevezys (-5.5) BUY BC Neptunas Klaipeda 59¢ $253 5d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Olympiacos B.C. 72¢ $71 6d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Olympiacos B.C. 72¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.10 · official $217.10 (match) · 168 history records