Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:03:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ee8…07c4 sports 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$370 (-9%) realized −$370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%46W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$958
7 days−$602
14 days−$491
30 days−$491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$307
other 49% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -22.6% -30.0% 44% 44% -36.6%
≤30d 51 -17.3% -25.2% 47% 47% -29.9%
≤90d 94 -12.2% -20.5% 49% 49% -18.3%
all 94 -12.2% -20.5% 49% 49% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 49% -18.3%
10% -28.1% 49% -26.1%
15% -35.1% 48% -33.2%
20% -41.4% 43% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$41 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses46 / 48
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage65d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $50 +$29 +57%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
ACF Fiorentina leading at halftime? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 19 $82 −$82 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $38 +$26 +67%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 +$39 +81%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Colombia to win the second half? Jun 18 $40 +$21 +52%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $54 +$41 +76%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$46 +91%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $40 +$18 +44%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $61 +$22 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $57 +$31 +55%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $41 +$45 +110%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $61 +$36 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $54 +$57 +105%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $19 +$11 +60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $9 −$1 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $35 +$12 +34%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 +$12 +76%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $30 +$49 +162%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $16 +$11 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 +$16 +53%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $17 +$11 +63%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$19 -93%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $40 +$22 +53%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 +$22 +110%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $26 +$24 +90%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $101 +$61 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $79 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $50 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 20h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 46¢ $13 21h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 21h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $38 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $49 24h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $35 28h
Colombia to win the second half? SELL Yes 99¢ $61 41h
Colombia to win the second half? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 42h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 42h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $54 42h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 47h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $58 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $40 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $61 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $85 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $57 2d
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 2d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $54 3d
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 3d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records