Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ee8…8e7d crypto 1306 markets active 10h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (196 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$314 (-2%) realized −$314 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate82%1073W / 232L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day196.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$110
14 days−$368
30 days−$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$370
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (196 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -78.7% -80.7% 10% 10% -85.7%
≤30d 1305 -6.2% -15.2% 82% 4% -11.8%
≤90d 1305 -6.2% -15.2% 82% 4% -11.8%
all 1305 -6.2% -15.2% 82% 4% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 4% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 2% -20.2%
15% -30.7% 2% -28.0%
20% -37.5% 1% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$314
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1073 / 232
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1305 / 1306
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day196.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Ben Shelton 78¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1 +$2 +206%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 78¢ $1 9h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 18¢ $1 32h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 66¢ $1 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 32¢ $1 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $1 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.93 (match) · 3500 history records