Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ee7…f36e sports 908 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$347 (-0%) realized +$121 · open −$468
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate78%703W / 198L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$414est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$360
7 days−$1,049
14 days−$190
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$1,079
other 10% +$267
weather 1% −$43
crypto 1% −$93
world 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -6.9% -15.7% 50% 48% -29.7%
≤30d 170 +4.5% -5.5% 66% 60% -11.0%
≤90d 901 +1.4% -8.3% 78% 52% -10.0%
all 901 +1.4% -8.3% 78% 52% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 52% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 24% -18.6%
15% -25.1% 14% -26.4%
20% -32.4% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$70 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$121
Unrealized−$468
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses703 / 198
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$414
Open positions7
Markets (closed)901 / 908
History coverage72d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 901 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 32¢ $100 $56 −$44 (-44%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 62¢ 8¢ $85 $12 −$73 (-86%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Haiti 33¢ 1¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 59¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 71¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $61 −$30 -48%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $21 +$122 +596%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $29 +$22 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$42 +42%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 +$136 +134%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $22 +$7 +33%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $82 −$81 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $66 +$17 +25%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $101 +$65 +65%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $69 −$68 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $100 −$42 -42%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$90 -90%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$6 -3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$32 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $94 +$72 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 +$29 +29%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $503 −$431 -86%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$17 -17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $92 +$28 +30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $101 −$99 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $101 −$93 -92%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$33 +32%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $101 +$20 +20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$32 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $151 +$85 +56%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$42 +42%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$55 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $100 +$8 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $101 +$21 +21%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $101 +$20 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$74 -74%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 51m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 62¢ $86 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Haiti 33¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $31 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $29 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $29 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $22 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $102 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 48¢ $82 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 79¢ $82 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $66 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $69 29h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 50¢ $59 29h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 7¢ $11 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.43 · official $69.43 (match) · 1856 history records