Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3ee7…fb27 crypto 468 markets active 4h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,322 (-4%) realized −$1,434 · open +$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%235W / 230L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days+$47
14 days+$246
30 days−$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$672
other 36% −$1,388
sports 5% +$445
politics 5% −$540
tech 3% −$235
finance 3% +$137
world 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -3.4% -12.6% 44% 36% -8.0%
≤30d 103 -9.0% -17.6% 51% 35% -12.5%
≤90d 465 -14.5% -22.6% 51% 39% -16.6%
all 465 -14.5% -22.6% 51% 39% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 39% -16.6%
10% -30.0% 30% -24.6%
15% -36.8% 21% -31.9%
20% -43.0% 13% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$35 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$639
Realized−$1,434
Unrealized+$112
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses235 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)465 / 468
History coverage97d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 28¢ 42¢ $200 $304 +$104 (+52%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $227 $211 −$16 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$26 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $865 +$47 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $628 +$173 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$11 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $60 −$25 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $202 −$48 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $98 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $42 −$33 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $122 −$98 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $103 −$41 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $52 −$17 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$14 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $135 +$212 +157%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $99 −$57 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $31 −$27 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $104 −$38 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $31 −$8 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $114 −$110 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $104 +$392 +377%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $52 −$21 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $52 −$30 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $102 −$44 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $104 +$197 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 04 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $219 −$79 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $104 −$78 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 04 $104 −$11 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $11 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $32 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 03 $42 +$13 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $103 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 03 $238 +$54 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $31 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $104 −$39 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 03 $71 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $28 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $38 18h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $104 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $207 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $207 18h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $539 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $205 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $238 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $238 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $42 30h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $412 30h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $448 31h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $639.43 · official $640.22 (match) · 1489 history records