Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:19:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ee6…80ad other 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 255L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$38
sports 22% −$18
politics 10% −$8
economics 8% −$7
culture 6% −$7
crypto 6% −$6
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 60 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 266 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 255
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage139d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $377 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $571 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $359 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $339 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $424 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $573 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $768 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $895 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $132 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $294 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $729 −$2 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $420 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $152 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $853 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $206 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $196 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $365 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $147 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $526 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $218 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $308 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 31 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $73 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 10h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 12h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 15h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $11 16h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $11 17h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $63 19h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $63 21h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 22h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 24h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 31h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 32h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 34h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 35h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 41h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 43h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 44h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 46h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 47h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1373 history records