Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3ee4…565c sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$40
crypto 25% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.5% -18.1% 75% 0% -19.6%
≤30d 4 -9.5% -18.1% 75% 0% -19.6%
≤90d 4 -9.5% -18.1% 75% 0% -19.6%
all 4 -9.5% -18.1% 75% 0% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -19.6%
10% -25.9% 0% -27.3%
15% -33.1% 0% -34.3%
20% -39.6% 0% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$51 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Plovdiv: Lorenzo Angelini vs Dali Blanch Dali Blanch 94¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 24 $70 +$4 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin Jun 24 $100 −$51 -50%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Joanna Garland vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 24 $94 +$3 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen Jun 24 $97 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 94¢ $70 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $70 1h
Plovdiv: Lorenzo Angelini vs Dali Blanch SELL Dali Blanch 92¢ $135 1h
Plovdiv: Lorenzo Angelini vs Dali Blanch BUY Dali Blanch 94¢ $140 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin SELL Oceane Dodin 46¢ $50 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Joanna Garland vs Tyra Caterina Grant SELL Tyra Caterina Grant 100¢ $97 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin BUY Oceane Dodin 91¢ $100 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen SELL Iryna Shymanovich 100¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Joanna Garland vs Tyra Caterina Grant BUY Tyra Caterina Grant 97¢ $94 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 87¢ $94 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen BUY Iryna Shymanovich 98¢ $31 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen BUY Iryna Shymanovich 96¢ $66 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $95 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.65 · official $145.65 (match) · 13 history records